Meet the Economists
Travis J. Berge
Principal Economist
Current Macroeconomic Conditions Section
Research and Statistics
202.452.7843
[email protected]
[email protected]
Education
- Ph.D., Economics, University of California - Davis, 2011
- M.A., Economics, University of California Davis, 2007
- B.A., Economics, University of Colorado Boulder, 2004
Principal Economist
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
2017 - presentSenior Economist
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
2015 - 2017Economist
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
2014 - 2015Economist
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
2011 - 2014
- When Is the Fiscal Multiplier High? A Comparison of Four Business Cycle Phases
Travis Berge, Maarten De Ridder, and Damjan Pfajfar
European Economic Review (2021)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103852
See also » FRB Working Paper (2020) - Time-varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap Estimate
Travis J. Berge
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2021)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2020.012r1 - Corrigendum to "Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts"
Travis J. Berge, Andrew C. Chang, and Nitish R. Sinha
International Journal of Forecasting (2021)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.006 - Which Output Gap Estimates Are Stable in Real Time and Why?
Alessandro Barbarino, Travis J. Berge, Han Chen, and Andrea Stella
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2020)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2020.102 - Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts
Travis J. Berge, Andrew C. Chang, and Nitish R. Sinha
International Journal of Forecasting (2019)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.03.026
See also » FRB Working Paper (2019) - Duration Dependence, Monetary Policy Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle
Travis J. Berge and Damjan Pfajfar
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2019)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2019.020 - Understanding Survey-Based Inflation Expectations
Travis J. Berge
International Journal of Forecasting (2018)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.07.003
See also » FRB Working Paper (2017) - Which Market Indicators Best Forecast Recessions?
Travis Berge, Nitish Sinha, and Michael Smolyansky
FEDS Notes (2016)
https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.1805 - Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle
Travis J. Berge
Journal of Forecasting (2015)
https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2345 - Forecasting Disconnected Exchange Rates
Travis J. Berge
Journal of Applied Econometrics (2014)
https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2350 - Global Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy: Is Unconventional Policy Different?
Travis J. Berge and Guangye Cao
Economic Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City) (2014) - A Chronology of Turning Points in Economic Activity: Spain, 1850-2011
Travis J. Berge and Òscar Jordà
SERIEs (2013)
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13209-012-0095-6 - Has Globalization Increased the Synchronicity of International Business Cycles?
Travis J. Berge
Economic Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City) (2012) - Currency Carry Trades
Travis J. Berge, Òscar Jordà, and Alan M. Taylor
NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010 (2011) - Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions
Travis J. Berge and Òscar Jordà
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (2011)
https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.3.2.246
Referee
- Canadian Journal of Economics
- CESifo Economic Studies
- Contemporary Economic Policy
- Empirical Economics
- International Journal of Central Banking
- International Journal of Forecasting
- Journal of Applied Econometrics
- Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
- Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis
- Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control
- Journal of Empirical Finance
- Journal of Forecasting
- Journal of International Economics
- Journal of Macroeconomics
- Journal of Money, Credit & Banking
- Macroeconomic Dynamics
- Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics
Professional Affiliation
- American Economic Association
Last update:
June 30, 2022